The Logic Of Sports Betting

The Logic of Sport Betting teaches concepts of how to win with perspectives that have I have never seen published before. How does a Sportsbook generate a line for a given market? Looking at that process, you can identify when and what will be easiest to attack as a sports bettor. The process explains why it is nearly impossible to win at the NFL betting 30 minutes before a game starts, and which markets are easiest to beat. The math isn’t too heavy, but enough to teach basic concepts you must know to have a chance. What is a break-even percentage? How do you calculate a theoretical hold on a multi-way market, or a synthetic two-way market? Why do players lose so much on parlays (it isn’t the hold)? In addition to the process, this book teaches about the markets. What do different line moves mean? What types of market moves warrant betting more (or less)? Much of the book focuses on helping you understand the operation of a sportsbook, and the inherent weaknesses it has. If you see the enemy as they see themselves, you will better see and understand glaring weaknesses in what they do. The final section includes bread and butter things that winning players know and do. How can you best exploit a Sportsbook’s marketing (e.g., bonuses and other offers)? If you have exceptional information or an angle, how do you best use it to make money? How can you lower the market’s theoretical hold? When do you often see big value in derivatives and props? This book alone won’t make you a winning player, but it is a major stepping stone towards winning. If you are a losing player, there is a lot you need to learn from this book. If you are a winning player, it might make you think in more depth about (possibly incorrect) assumptions you have made. I gave this book 5 stars because it offered a lot of information I have never seen published, it was coherently themed to elevate players, and it was extremely well written and edited.

Where do lines come from? What does line movement mean? What are liquid markets? What markets are more vulnerable? This is not a literal "DIY/how to" book, so don't expect that (and there is no logical reason to expect that). Instead, it is a good intro/reminder of some basic contours of sports betting markets, some ideas about what offerings are more or less beatable, and why. My main critique is that the authors don't provide a better guide to using theory as a guide for generating your own ideas of what is beatable or not. Without theory, it's hard to know why correlations exists, what might be a cause versus an effect, versus a spurious relationship. Skill (versus luck) in this endeavor requires theory, and then hypotheses testing, etc., (social science methodology). Hardly anything is explicitly discussed about this. Otherwise, if you invest in sports outcomes, this book is a good investment too. It is easy to read, well organized, and so on. I read it first quickly, set it aside, thought about it for a few days, then re-read, and the second reading was more useful that way.

This book is written from a different perspective then most books. It explains the difference between the hold and the vig. It explains how the book making business really works, and the advantages the bookie has over the better. It explains how the better can minimize these advantages. The book doesn't concentrate on any one sport, it looks at the betting market as a whole. It explains the breakeven point and the expected value. How to convert from American to fraction. There is no magic formula for winning. Just solid information about the industry to educate the reader.

This is a well written book, as one would expect from Ed Miller. He provides insight into betting opportunities you should be looking at and what bets you should avoid (spoiler alert: Almost all total and betting lines on major sports after a few hours). Only portion of book that is lacking is that it does not provide any insight into how the books work by someone with inside knowledge (as Miller acknowledges as he has a poker background). In fact, this is the area of the market that is absent any books: former insiders on the mechanics of pricing.

A phenomenal book for those looking to take sports betting more seriously. This book will teach the basic fundamentals of how to develop habits that can win long term in sports betting. I am extremely impressed with the level of detail and am very happy I took the time to read this book.

The headline says it all. The game is rigged.

I have dabbled in poker. I am now at the point where I win any home games, and could probably do okay at the local casino. A large part of this was the foundational knowledge from Ed Miller's earler poker books (have not read the ones from the past few years). So, I am seeing great offers from the on-line casinos for sports betting now. This is similar to what was offer during the poker craze many years ago. How to take advantage? I looked around for a book. Picked up a couple and they were crap. ' This book is a great introduction for a beginner like myself into sports betting. Sure, I followed sports and thought I knew what I was doing. I have always done well at the football pool at work. Nope, I didn't know what I was doing, and was merely lucky. This book gets into what you HAVE to know to have a chance at winning at gambling on sports, consistently and over the long term. However, it is not like you are given the keys to a car and can drive it away. This book suggests, to me, that you have to start modelling to choose winners. At least that is my take away. This will be hard work. It starts with a mathematical description of how to convert the odds that are given to the percentage of times your pick has to win to make money. THis is fundamental to a better understanding of what -110 means. For someone in the business, sure this may easy, but it was hard for me, as a beginner in the area. The hold is a crucial calculation which you have to be able to calculate. Then it helps you understand the market you are betting into. Then he finally gets into how to win , and exotic bets like prop bets and parlays. As he outlines, there are reasons to believe there are some good deals out there for sports bettors. If you want to get into the area, you would be wise to read this book.

explains market mechanisms on how sportsbooks work...probably has the most math of any non-textbook on the subject....deals with the concept of the hold, how prices/lines are determined and strategies for winning....sometimes a little dense, perhaps you're not interested in all the exotic bet types and some of the math can be confusing...but well worth the $20-you'll definitely learn the proper mindset about sports betting!